It’s been 3 months since Facebook’s initial public offering saw a bunch of people swindled out of their money while making Bono a billionaire (well, maybe he’s only a 500 millionaire now). And with the 3 month mark comes news that the stock is now valued at about $19, otherwise known as half of the original price. People who bought at the height of the mania are now seeing their $38 investments valued at $19, or if they had, oh, I dunno, 23 million shares like Intagram did, they’re out about $300 million.
What we’re seeing here is pure unadulterated hubris. Zuck & Co. tricked the world into thinking their product was worth a shit, to the point where they had even fooled themselves. Claiming the status of top social network in the world doesn’t matter when the company has no value. I could tell you that I am the best person in the world at a sport I invented, but would you care?
Part of the rules of the IPO state that the employees of the company have to wait until later this fall to sell their shares. At this point, the market is expected to be flooded with Facebook shares. Any Day 1 economics student can tell you that when supply goes up, demand goes down, and so does the price. Eventually this chronic devaluation will have to be accounted for, and some one is going to have to resign as CEO to satiate the investors’ thirst for blood. Zuckerberg might want to promote some one else to that position if he doesn’t want to be tossed out of the company he
It’s my humble prediction that Facebook stock will be trading at 1/4 of the IPO price by the 6 month mark, and then it will be safe to say that one of two things will happen, or probably both:
- Scenario A: Facebook goes bankrupt and shuts down, leaving a major void in global time wasting and a huge spike in production across all companies worldwide. Twitter steps up its game to try and claim market share but eventually falters due to being too fucking spammy. Additionally, the bubble economy of apps and games that are connected to Facebook will pop, leading to several CEO suicides/homicides.
- Scenario B: Facebook’s investors stage a coup wherein the original ethos of the company (that of being a cool place to be with friends) is completely obliterated and a changing of the guard transpires that gives way to an unprecedented amount of advertising on the site. This will ultimately trigger a mass exodus of users, causing advertisers to turn away in droves, and ultimately the site will implode under the costs of running servers and paying employees.
Either of these options is fine by me. You had a good run, Marky Zuck & the Facebook Bunch, but eventually everything comes crashing down. BTW, like us on Facebook, while you still can.